Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 13.804217 15.767522 17.875840 20.304076 23.019265 25.957402 29.372942
2025-08-10 10.904335 13.579390 16.670048 20.487703 25.058166 30.334782 36.867158
2025-08-17 9.390341 12.364652 15.965655 20.614241 26.420459 33.394712 42.363229
2025-08-24 8.156503 11.298515 15.266680 20.595009 27.504171 36.095821 47.514102
2025-08-31 7.150098 10.360013 14.567744 20.415416 28.247555 38.280486 51.992864
2025-09-07 6.436156 9.715617 14.162021 20.535234 29.321044 40.874900 57.058915
2025-09-14 5.993466 9.387127 14.129432 21.115840 30.995000 44.288646 63.312270
2025-09-21 5.377323 8.739247 13.580895 20.910149 31.536584 46.160540 67.527549
2025-09-28 4.652205 7.852332 12.604565 19.998870 30.992242 46.463994 69.540970
2025-10-05 4.408089 7.677826 12.658165 20.584235 32.612154 49.850456 75.994245
2025-10-12 4.148353 7.450869 12.606893 20.993716 33.974296 52.904630 82.074210
2025-10-19 3.796591 7.038906 12.231115 20.867450 34.504868 54.746424 86.439483
2025-10-26 3.441088 6.594271 11.778513 20.602382 34.825263 56.318446 90.522612
2025-11-02 3.174357 6.278000 11.510003 20.610717 35.565515 58.547043 95.676704
2025-11-09 2.968500 6.048409 11.363987 20.799877 36.586261 61.225616 101.592768
2025-11-16 2.743064 5.760898 11.094831 20.758953 37.220408 63.314560 106.661506
2025-11-23 2.518737 5.453115 10.764499 20.585526 37.614443 65.023295 111.177609
2025-11-30 2.358975 5.253901 10.610822 20.703628 38.491816 67.524983 117.023881
2025-12-07 2.277559 5.201827 10.719817 21.289357 40.186458 71.407915 125.215256
2025-12-14 2.097233 4.931704 10.402268 21.081854 40.491047 73.007269 129.737390
2025-12-21 1.846590 4.489716 9.723808 20.164056 39.492059 72.381510 130.555666
2025-12-28 1.792931 4.463503 9.848659 20.753646 41.204181 76.383677 139.203532
2026-01-04 1.722438 4.393630 9.881124 21.166113 42.609074 79.904426 147.147313